Varese vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.3%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.4%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.6%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
27.7%
Draw
0-0
9.3%
1-1
13.1%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.7%
32.3%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
10.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.5%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
8.9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan. 2000 |
SIE
2 - 0
VAR
67%
20%
13%
|
60 | 70 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2000 |
VAR
3 - 0
MOD
50%
27%
23%
|
59 | 58 | 1 | +1 |
| 09 Jan. 2000 |
BRE
0 - 2
VAR
39%
27%
35%
|
58 | 51 | 7 | +1 |
| 06 Jan. 2000 |
VAR
0 - 1
PIS
36%
30%
35%
|
59 | 70 | 11 | -1 |
| 23 Dec. 1999 |
MON
0 - 2
VAR
28%
26%
46%
|
59 | 44 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan. 2000 |
ASL
0 - 0
ACL
71%
19%
10%
|
64 | 50 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 2000 |
MON
2 - 1
ASL
18%
24%
58%
|
64 | 42 | 22 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 2000 |
ASL
1 - 1
SIE
41%
27%
32%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2000 |
ASL
2 - 1
SPA
55%
26%
19%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1999 |
PIS
1 - 3
ASL
52%
27%
21%
|
63 | 71 | 8 | +1 |