Champions League Last 16
Global 1-0
Arsenal vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.8%
Win probability
1.76
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.3%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.3%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.2%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
23.7%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar. 2006 |
FUL
0 - 4
ARS
24%
26%
50%
|
93 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2006 |
BBU
1 - 0
ARS
25%
26%
49%
|
93 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 2006 |
RMA
0 - 1
ARS
58%
22%
19%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2006 |
LIV
1 - 0
ARS
29%
28%
43%
|
93 | 90 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2006 |
ARS
1 - 1
BOL
71%
18%
11%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar. 2006 |
RMA
2 - 1
ATM
71%
18%
11%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2006 |
MLL
2 - 1
RMA
21%
24%
55%
|
93 | 83 | 10 | -1 |
| 21 Feb. 2006 |
RMA
0 - 1
ARS
58%
22%
19%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2006 |
RMA
3 - 0
ALA
82%
12%
6%
|
93 | 81 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2006 |
RMA
4 - 0
ZAR
74%
17%
10%
|
92 | 88 | 4 | +1 |