Arsenal vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.3%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.1%
2-0
12%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.5%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
15.2%
Win probability
0.81
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
10.7%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Dec. 1978 |
NOR
0 - 0
ARS
39%
27%
34%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 1978 |
ARS
1 - 1
CRV
76%
15%
9%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 1978 |
ARS
1 - 0
LIV
38%
28%
34%
|
88 | 92 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 1978 |
COV
1 - 1
ARS
49%
25%
26%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Nov. 1978 |
CRV
1 - 0
ARS
41%
24%
35%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Dec. 1978 |
DER
1 - 3
MUD
47%
24%
30%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 1978 |
BRI
1 - 0
DER
47%
26%
27%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Nov. 1978 |
DER
2 - 1
QPR
62%
21%
17%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1978 |
COV
4 - 2
DER
60%
22%
18%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Nov. 1978 |
DER
2 - 1
BIR
65%
20%
15%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |