Arsenal vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.6%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
20.5%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.3%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 1950 |
ARS
2 - 0
BUR
78%
14%
9%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1950 |
BIR
2 - 1
ARS
29%
27%
44%
|
86 | 73 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1950 |
ARS
1 - 1
BOL
76%
15%
10%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 1950 |
ARS
1 - 0
HUR
74%
15%
11%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1949 |
LIV
2 - 0
ARS
52%
23%
25%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 1950 |
DER
4 - 2
NOR
88%
8%
4%
|
84 | 53 | 31 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 1950 |
DER
2 - 2
LIV
62%
19%
19%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1950 |
SUN
6 - 1
DER
44%
24%
32%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | -1 |
| 14 Jan. 1950 |
DER
1 - 1
BUR
75%
15%
10%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1949 |
STO
1 - 3
DER
44%
24%
32%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |