Arsenal vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.3%
Win probability
2.31
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.8%
2-0
8%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.5%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.1%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.1%
18.5%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
5%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
-11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 1938 |
ARS
3 - 1
LEI
69%
17%
14%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 1938 |
SUN
1 - 1
ARS
56%
20%
24%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 1938 |
WOL
3 - 1
ARS
60%
19%
21%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1938 |
ARS
2 - 1
EVE
65%
18%
17%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1937 |
ARS
2 - 1
BPO
70%
17%
14%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 1938 |
DER
4 - 1
STO
69%
17%
14%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 1938 |
DER
1 - 7
MAC
56%
20%
25%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | -1 |
| 22 Jan. 1938 |
BOL
0 - 2
DER
49%
23%
28%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 1938 |
SUN
2 - 0
DER
62%
18%
20%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1938 |
DER
0 - 1
LEI
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |