Arsenal vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.7%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.2%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.2%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.1%
3-0
7%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.2%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.7%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.5%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
17.8%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.8%
15.5%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep. 1936 |
WOL
2 - 0
ARS
55%
20%
25%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 1936 |
ARS
4 - 1
SUN
61%
19%
20%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1936 |
ARS
1 - 1
BRE
69%
17%
14%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 1936 |
HUR
0 - 0
ARS
43%
24%
34%
|
87 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1936 |
BRE
2 - 0
ARS
45%
23%
33%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep. 1936 |
DER
5 - 1
WOL
64%
18%
18%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1936 |
DER
1 - 2
PNE
69%
17%
14%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 Sep. 1936 |
SHW
2 - 3
DER
54%
22%
24%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1936 |
DER
3 - 0
SUN
53%
21%
26%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 1936 |
DER
5 - 4
MUD
70%
16%
14%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |