Arsenal vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.9%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.1%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.6%
1-0
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.5%
21.6%
Win probability
0.95
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.2%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 1920 |
DER
1 - 1
ARS
62%
21%
17%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1920 |
BOL
1 - 1
ARS
71%
17%
12%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1920 |
ARS
0 - 0
BOL
41%
25%
34%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1920 |
MID
2 - 1
ARS
64%
20%
16%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 1920 |
ARS
2 - 2
MID
47%
25%
28%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 1920 |
DER
1 - 1
ARS
62%
21%
17%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1920 |
MAC
0 - 0
DER
68%
18%
14%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 1920 |
DER
3 - 0
MAC
53%
25%
23%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 1920 |
WBA
3 - 0
DER
69%
18%
12%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1920 |
DER
1 - 1
WBA
42%
27%
32%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | 0 |