Arsenal vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
77%
Win probability
2.67
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.5%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
6.6%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.4%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.9%
14.2%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
14.2%
8.7%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6.3%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arsenal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 1907 |
NOT
4 - 1
ARS
46%
23%
31%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1907 |
STO
2 - 0
ARS
42%
24%
35%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | -1 |
| 13 Apr. 1907 |
ARS
2 - 1
BIR
60%
22%
18%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1907 |
EVE
2 - 1
ARS
68%
18%
14%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1907 |
SUN
2 - 3
ARS
56%
22%
22%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 1907 |
DER
1 - 3
BRI
41%
24%
35%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1907 |
DER
5 - 2
EVE
30%
26%
43%
|
73 | 86 | 13 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 1907 |
LIV
2 - 0
DER
85%
10%
5%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 1907 |
DER
1 - 0
SHW
36%
25%
39%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1907 |
DER
1 - 1
BIR
43%
25%
32%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | 0 |