Arroyo vs Lucena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.2%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.1%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.3%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.1%
34.6%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.1%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.8%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arroyo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2014 |
GRA
1 - 1
ARR
67%
19%
14%
|
46 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2014 |
ARR
1 - 1
BAL
28%
27%
45%
|
46 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
MAR
2 - 1
ARR
34%
26%
40%
|
47 | 42 | 5 | -1 |
| 05 Oct. 2014 |
ARR
0 - 0
PAL
43%
26%
31%
|
47 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2014 |
ROD
2 - 2
ARR
41%
26%
33%
|
47 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Lucena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2014 |
BAL
2 - 0
LUC
52%
25%
22%
|
50 | 52 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2014 |
LUC
0 - 0
PAL
50%
25%
24%
|
50 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2014 |
ALM
6 - 0
LUC
48%
26%
26%
|
52 | 50 | 2 | -2 |
| 05 Oct. 2014 |
LUC
2 - 1
SRQ
62%
21%
17%
|
51 | 43 | 8 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2014 |
SEV
1 - 1
LUC
47%
25%
28%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | 0 |