Arouca vs Vitória Guimarães analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.7%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.3%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.9%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
38.3%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
9.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
20.8%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.2%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.4%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+16%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
10º
16º
10º
12
3º
8º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 75 |
1º
|
59% | |
|
5º
|
10 | 69 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 69 |
3º
|
23.5% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 68 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
12 | 61 |
5º
|
29.5% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 52 |
6º
|
24.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 50 |
7º
|
20% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 44 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 40 |
11º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 39 |
13º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 37 |
14º
|
15.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 35 |
15º
|
5.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 34 |
16º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 28 |
17º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
18º
|
39.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 2.5% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 6% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 14.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
1.5% | 15% |
|
Mid-table
|
89.5% | 62% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
4% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 2
ACV
69%
19%
13%
|
79 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 0
TON
65%
21%
14%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
RIO
3 - 2
ARO
43%
25%
32%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
ARO
3 - 1
OLI
76%
16%
8%
|
79 | 57 | 22 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2024 |
ARO
2 - 3
SAO
86%
11%
3%
|
79 | 44 | 35 | 0 |
Matches
Vitória Guimarães
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Aug. 2024 |
ZUR
0 - 3
VIT
53%
23%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2024 |
VIT
4 - 0
FLO
72%
18%
11%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
FLO
0 - 1
VIT
21%
24%
55%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
VIT
2 - 0
RAY
47%
25%
28%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2024 |
LEX
1 - 1
VIT
15%
22%
63%
|
83 | 60 | 23 | 0 |