Arouca vs Sporting CP analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.4%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.5%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.5%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
10.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
58.9%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9.8%
1-3
6.4%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18%
0-3
6.3%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10.1%
0-4
3.1%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.5%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+12%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
3
10º
16º
10º
15
1º
3º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
15 | 75 |
1º
|
59% | |
|
5º
|
10 | 69 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 69 |
3º
|
23.5% | |
|
7º
|
8 | 68 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
3º
|
12 | 61 |
5º
|
29.5% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 52 |
6º
|
24.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 50 |
7º
|
20% | |
|
6º
|
9 | 44 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
10º
|
11.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 40 |
11º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
14º
|
5 | 39 |
13º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 37 |
14º
|
15.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 35 |
15º
|
5.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 34 |
16º
|
10.5% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 28 |
17º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
18º
|
39.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 59% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 20.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 11% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
1.5% | 6.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
89.5% | 3% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
4% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
RIO
1 - 0
ARO
40%
26%
34%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
1 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
24%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
MOR
3 - 1
ARO
50%
24%
26%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 1
VIT
36%
26%
38%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 2
ACV
69%
19%
13%
|
79 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Sporting CP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SCP
2 - 0
FCP
51%
23%
26%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
FAR
0 - 5
SCP
18%
21%
61%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
NAC
1 - 6
SCP
20%
22%
59%
|
88 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
SCP
3 - 1
RIO
75%
16%
9%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
SCP
3 - 4
FCP
46%
23%
31%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | 0 |