Arouca vs Naval analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
41.9%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.9%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.5%
1-0
7%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.3%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
34.7%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.3%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
4%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2012 |
ARO
2 - 1
ATL
52%
22%
27%
|
62 | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2012 |
SPC
4 - 2
ARO
38%
24%
38%
|
63 | 59 | 4 | -1 |
| 13 May. 2012 |
EST
2 - 2
ARO
59%
24%
17%
|
63 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
ARO
1 - 2
NAV
48%
26%
26%
|
63 | 67 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2012 |
BEL
3 - 0
ARO
48%
27%
26%
|
64 | 64 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Naval
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2012 |
NAV
1 - 1
SPC
63%
21%
16%
|
69 | 60 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2012 |
NAV
3 - 1
ATL
57%
21%
22%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | +1 |
| 13 May. 2012 |
NAV
5 - 1
SAN
57%
25%
19%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2012 |
ARO
1 - 2
NAV
48%
26%
26%
|
67 | 63 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
NAV
1 - 2
MOR
44%
28%
28%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | 0 |