Arouca vs Naval analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.6%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.1%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
9%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.4%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
26%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.5%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2012 |
BEL
3 - 0
ARO
48%
27%
26%
|
63 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
ARO
2 - 0
TRO
46%
26%
28%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | +1 |
| 07 Apr. 2012 |
OLI
2 - 2
ARO
50%
26%
24%
|
62 | 64 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 2012 |
ARO
0 - 0
UNM
61%
23%
17%
|
63 | 58 | 5 | -1 |
| 25 Mar. 2012 |
SCF
2 - 0
ARO
48%
25%
26%
|
63 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Naval
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
NAV
1 - 2
MOR
44%
28%
28%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
NAV
2 - 1
UNM
56%
25%
19%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2012 |
EST
2 - 0
NAV
50%
27%
23%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | -1 |
| 01 Apr. 2012 |
NAV
0 - 1
BEL
57%
24%
19%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2012 |
OLI
3 - 2
NAV
40%
28%
32%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | -1 |