Arouca vs AVS Futebol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.4%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7.9%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.8%
2-0
13%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
14.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.1%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
22.2%
14.4%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+38%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
14º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
6
9º
16º
9º
7
9º
18º
18º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
18 | 75 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
2º
|
15 | 71 |
2º
|
29.5% | |
|
3º
|
13 | 69 |
3º
|
24.5% | |
|
7º
|
11 | 68 |
4º
|
24.5% | |
|
5º
|
12 | 60 |
5º
|
34% | |
|
6º
|
11 | 51 |
6º
|
19% | |
|
8º
|
8 | 50 |
7º
|
17.5% | |
|
4º
|
12 | 46 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
|
14º
|
6 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
11º
|
7 | 43 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 40 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
15º
|
5 | 38 |
12º
|
11% | |
|
10º
|
7 | 38 |
13º
|
9.5% | |
|
13º
|
6 | 37 |
14º
|
10.5% | |
|
16º
|
4 | 37 |
15º
|
13% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 31 |
16º
|
20.5% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 26 |
17º
|
30% | |
|
|
12º
|
7 | 25 |
18º
|
36% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
1% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
92.5% | 26% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
5% | 15% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 59% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arouca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
FAR
0 - 1
ARO
35%
26%
39%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 3
SCP
19%
22%
59%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
RIO
1 - 0
ARO
40%
26%
34%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
1 - 0
NAC
52%
25%
24%
|
79 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
MOR
3 - 1
ARO
50%
24%
26%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
AVS Futebol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep. 2024 |
SCP
3 - 0
AVE
87%
9%
4%
|
61 | 88 | 27 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2024 |
AVE
1 - 0
RIO
23%
30%
47%
|
60 | 78 | 18 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SAN
2 - 1
AVE
61%
24%
15%
|
60 | 77 | 17 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
AVE
1 - 0
VIT
12%
22%
66%
|
59 | 85 | 26 | +1 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
GFC
4 - 2
AVE
61%
24%
15%
|
59 | 74 | 15 | 0 |