Arda Kardzhali vs Hebar Pazardzhik analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.4%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.9%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.9%
3-0
9.3%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.7%
2-0
12.9%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.3%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.3%
11.3%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.2%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
-8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
34
5º
13º
5º
9
15º
16º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
16º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 76 |
1º
|
97% | |
|
4º
|
40 | 60 |
2º
|
34.5% | |
|
2º
|
40 | 58 |
3º
|
32.5% | |
|
3º
|
40 | 58 |
4º
|
27% | |
|
|
5º
|
34 | 52 |
5º
|
53% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 46 |
6º
|
39% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 44 |
7º
|
20% | |
|
7º
|
30 | 42 |
8º
|
24.5% | |
|
10º
|
21 | 38 |
9º
|
26.5% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 38 |
10º
|
27.5% | |
|
11º
|
20 | 34 |
11º
|
28.5% | |
|
12º
|
19 | 31 |
12º
|
28% | |
|
13º
|
14 | 29 |
13º
|
34.5% | |
|
14º
|
14 | 25 |
14º
|
38% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 21 |
15º
|
45% | |
|
|
16º
|
9 | 18 |
16º
|
68% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
30% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
69.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0.5% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Arda Kardzhali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
LUD
5 - 1
ARK
72%
18%
10%
|
70 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
ARK
1 - 0
FLK
61%
22%
17%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
LPL
1 - 0
ARK
47%
29%
24%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2024 |
ARK
1 - 1
FCD
50%
23%
26%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2024 |
LSO
0 - 0
ARK
50%
26%
23%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Hebar Pazardzhik
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug. 2024 |
HEB
1 - 1
SSO
28%
26%
46%
|
56 | 68 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
CSK
3 - 1
HEB
68%
21%
12%
|
57 | 72 | 15 | -1 |
| 22 Jul. 2024 |
HEB
0 - 2
SVA
34%
26%
40%
|
58 | 64 | 6 | -1 |
| 11 Jul. 2024 |
FHV
5 - 2
HEB
79%
14%
7%
|
57 | 77 | 20 | +1 |
| 07 Jul. 2024 |
LOK
1 - 1
HEB
81%
13%
6%
|
57 | 80 | 23 | 0 |