Aravaca vs RSD Alcalá analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.9%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.5%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.8%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.1%
44%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.4%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
4.9%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.2%
0-3
3.7%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.2%
0-4
1.5%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+21%
+54%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
4
5º
12º
11º
6
1º
4º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
9º
|
3 | 69 |
1º
|
30% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 67 |
2º
|
21.5% | |
|
4º
|
4 | 62 |
3º
|
15.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
6 | 61 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
6º
|
4 | 56 |
5º
|
13% | |
|
1º
|
6 | 54 |
6º
|
11% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 53 |
7º
|
11% | |
|
3º
|
6 | 47 |
8º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 44 |
9º
|
7% | |
|
5º
|
4 | 44 |
10º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
4 | 43 |
11º
|
6.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 43 |
12º
|
7% | |
|
12º
|
1 | 38 |
13º
|
8.5% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 37 |
14º
|
9% | |
|
15º
|
0 | 36 |
15º
|
10.5% | |
|
10º
|
3 | 34 |
16º
|
13% | |
|
13º
|
1 | 32 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 31 |
18º
|
22.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0.5% | 13.5% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
13% | 51% |
|
Mid-table
|
72.5% | 35.5% |
|
Relegation
|
14% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aravaca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
ARA
1 - 0
LEG
17%
21%
61%
|
22 | 39 | 17 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
TRC
0 - 0
ARA
59%
22%
19%
|
21 | 27 | 6 | +1 |
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
TOB
1 - 1
ARA
16%
21%
63%
|
22 | 13 | 9 | -1 |
| 26 May. 2024 |
ARA
2 - 1
SSR
67%
18%
15%
|
21 | 17 | 4 | +1 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
UZN
3 - 5
ARA
36%
24%
40%
|
21 | 17 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
RSD Alcalá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
ADP
2 - 5
ALC
22%
25%
54%
|
33 | 22 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
ALC
3 - 1
VIL
72%
17%
11%
|
32 | 20 | 12 | +1 |
| 21 Aug. 2024 |
GET
0 - 0
ALC
73%
18%
9%
|
32 | 49 | 17 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
ALC
4 - 0
COL
32%
26%
42%
|
32 | 37 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
ALC
5 - 0
MAR
44%
26%
30%
|
31 | 28 | 3 | +1 |