Aprilia vs Paganese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.2%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.7%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.9%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.5%
22%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22%
58.8%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
24.1%
0-2
10%
1-3
6.3%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18%
0-3
6.4%
1-4
3%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
10%
0-4
3%
1-5
1.2%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4.4%
0-5
1.2%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.6%
0-6
0.4%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.5%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
7º
18º
17º
68
1º
9º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
68 | 71 |
1º
|
77% | |
|
2º
|
68 | 68 |
2º
|
77% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 56 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 55 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
50 | 50 |
5º
|
21.5% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 48 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
47 | 48 |
7º
|
47% | |
|
8º
|
43 | 44 |
8º
|
60.5% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 43 |
9º
|
34.5% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 41 |
10º
|
32.5% | |
|
11º
|
40 | 41 |
11º
|
25.5% | |
|
12º
|
40 | 40 |
12º
|
56.5% | |
|
14º
|
38 | 39 |
13º
|
36% | |
|
13º
|
38 | 38 |
14º
|
36% | |
|
15º
|
36 | 37 |
15º
|
29% | |
|
16º
|
35 | 36 |
16º
|
41% | |
|
|
17º
|
33 | 34 |
17º
|
49.5% | |
|
18º
|
32 | 33 |
18º
|
61.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 77% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 23% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
16.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
83.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aprilia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
CSO
6 - 1
APR
53%
22%
26%
|
27 | 26 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
APR
0 - 1
ASI
40%
23%
38%
|
28 | 30 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
HYR
0 - 0
APR
64%
20%
15%
|
28 | 36 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
PAL
0 - 0
APR
29%
25%
46%
|
28 | 21 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2022 |
APR
0 - 2
SOR
41%
25%
34%
|
30 | 32 | 2 | -2 |
Matches
Paganese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2022 |
PAG
1 - 1
ASI
66%
18%
16%
|
38 | 31 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2022 |
POR
1 - 1
PAG
35%
24%
41%
|
38 | 33 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
PAG
0 - 1
PAL
83%
12%
5%
|
39 | 21 | 18 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 2022 |
AUR
1 - 1
PAG
18%
20%
62%
|
39 | 25 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2022 |
PAG
3 - 2
ACC
84%
11%
6%
|
39 | 21 | 18 | 0 |