Aprilia vs Melfi analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.1%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.8%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.7%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.7%
17.1%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aprilia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
LAQ
0 - 1
APR
34%
26%
41%
|
33 | 27 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2012 |
APR
2 - 1
ACI
77%
15%
9%
|
33 | 21 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
APR
2 - 0
NEA
75%
16%
9%
|
33 | 21 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2012 |
FON
2 - 3
APR
38%
24%
37%
|
32 | 26 | 6 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 2012 |
ARZ
0 - 2
APR
50%
23%
27%
|
30 | 31 | 1 | +2 |
Matches
Melfi
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2012 |
ASM
0 - 1
ARZ
50%
23%
27%
|
29 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2012 |
ASM
1 - 0
VIG
30%
27%
43%
|
27 | 36 | 9 | +2 |
| 22 Apr. 2012 |
ASM
1 - 1
PAG
34%
27%
39%
|
27 | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2012 |
GAV
2 - 2
ASM
55%
23%
22%
|
27 | 29 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2012 |
NEA
0 - 3
ASM
42%
25%
34%
|
25 | 23 | 2 | +2 |