CAF Champions Last 16
Global 1-2
APR FC vs TP Mazembe analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13.7%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.9%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3.1%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
3.8%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.7%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.2%
66%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
0-1
12.2%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.8%
0-2
12.3%
1-3
6.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20.2%
0-3
8.3%
1-4
3.3%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
12.1%
0-4
4.2%
1-5
1.3%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.7%
0-5
1.7%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.2%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
APR FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar. 2010 |
ASK
2 - 3
APR
50%
25%
25%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2010 |
EFC
0 - 2
APR
51%
24%
25%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 2010 |
REC
0 - 1
APR
80%
13%
7%
|
42 | 66 | 24 | -2 |
| 20 Feb. 2010 |
APR
2 - 0
KIY
56%
23%
21%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | +2 |
| 16 Feb. 2010 |
MAR
1 - 3
APR
51%
24%
25%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
TP Mazembe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb. 2010 |
TPM
2 - 0
STA
50%
24%
27%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 2009 |
TPM
2 - 3
AUC
48%
24%
28%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Dec. 2009 |
TPM
1 - 2
POH
38%
25%
37%
|
73 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2009 |
TPM
1 - 0
HEA
55%
24%
21%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2009 |
HEA
2 - 1
TPM
41%
26%
34%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |