CAF Champions Last 16
Global 2-3
APR FC vs Etoile Sahel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
13%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.7%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
3%
1-0
4.2%
2-1
3.7%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
9.1%
19%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19%
68%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
0-1
11%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24%
0-2
11.8%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.6%
0-3
8.5%
1-4
3.8%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13%
0-4
4.6%
1-5
1.6%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.5%
0-5
2%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
APR FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2012 |
POL
0 - 0
APR
56%
23%
22%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2012 |
APR
7 - 1
MAR
54%
23%
23%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2012 |
APR
2 - 0
ASK
56%
23%
22%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2012 |
ISO
2 - 1
APR
52%
24%
24%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
APR
1 - 0
TUS
14%
19%
68%
|
41 | 65 | 24 | -1 |
Matches
Etoile Sahel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2012 |
CLU
0 - 0
ETO
48%
27%
25%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
ETO
0 - 1
ASD
53%
25%
22%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 2012 |
ESP
1 - 0
ETO
57%
23%
20%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | -1 |
| 04 Mar. 2012 |
OLY
1 - 2
ETO
45%
28%
28%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2012 |
ETO
0 - 0
USM
55%
24%
21%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | 0 |