Série D Brazil Ronda final 1/16
Global 3-2
Aparecidense vs Caldense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.8%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.5%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.9%
2-0
11%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
24%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24%
19.2%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-21%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aparecidense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 2021 |
CAL
1 - 0
APA
23%
28%
49%
|
56 | 48 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2021 |
NME
1 - 0
APA
31%
28%
41%
|
57 | 51 | 6 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
APA
2 - 1
GAM
59%
23%
18%
|
56 | 48 | 8 | +1 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
APA
4 - 1
GOI
57%
25%
19%
|
55 | 49 | 6 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
JAR
1 - 1
APA
12%
21%
67%
|
55 | 33 | 22 | 0 |
Matches
Caldense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 2021 |
CAL
1 - 0
APA
23%
28%
49%
|
48 | 56 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Sep. 2021 |
CAL
1 - 2
RIO
43%
27%
30%
|
49 | 46 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Aug. 2021 |
FER
3 - 1
CAL
63%
23%
15%
|
49 | 61 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2021 |
CAL
0 - 1
BOA
33%
30%
37%
|
50 | 53 | 3 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2021 |
UBE
2 - 3
CAL
52%
26%
23%
|
49 | 51 | 2 | +1 |