Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 2-1
América vs Vasco da Gama analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
50.6%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3%
3-0
4.8%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.7%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.5%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
5.6%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.7%
25.6%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15.5%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2007 |
TOL
3 - 1
AME
46%
26%
28%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2007 |
AME
0 - 2
PAC
54%
23%
23%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | -1 |
| 01 Oct. 2007 |
AME
2 - 2
CAZ
54%
24%
23%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2007 |
PAC
1 - 4
AME
51%
25%
24%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | +1 |
| 23 Sep. 2007 |
SNL
2 - 1
AME
36%
27%
37%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct. 2007 |
ATP
1 - 0
VAS
43%
25%
33%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2007 |
VAS
0 - 1
JUV
65%
20%
16%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2007 |
SAN
1 - 0
VAS
50%
24%
25%
|
83 | 87 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 2007 |
VAS
3 - 0
LAN
54%
24%
22%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Sep. 2007 |
VAS
0 - 2
CRZ
46%
25%
29%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |