Liga MX Finals Ap. Quarter-finals
Global 4-0
América vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.2%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.2%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
4.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
32.6%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.4%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov. 2024 |
TIJ
2 - 2
AME
35%
25%
40%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
TOL
4 - 0
AME
53%
23%
25%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2024 |
AME
2 - 1
PAC
49%
24%
27%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
MAZ
0 - 5
AME
32%
26%
42%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2024 |
AME
2 - 1
MON
48%
25%
27%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
TOL
4 - 0
AME
53%
23%
25%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Nov. 2024 |
TIG
2 - 1
TOL
41%
25%
34%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
TOL
2 - 2
LEO
56%
22%
23%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2024 |
NEC
1 - 3
TOL
29%
25%
46%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2024 |
TOL
5 - 0
PUE
76%
15%
9%
|
84 | 71 | 13 | 0 |