Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 5-2
América vs Millonarios analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.9%
Win probability
2.15
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
8.5%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13%
2-0
11.9%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
11%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
19%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
19%
13.1%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.2%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2007 |
MON
0 - 1
AME
38%
27%
36%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2007 |
MIL
2 - 3
AME
33%
26%
41%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2007 |
AME
1 - 0
NEC
64%
20%
16%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Nov. 2007 |
ATL
2 - 1
AME
42%
26%
32%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2007 |
AME
2 - 1
CHI
52%
25%
23%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2007 |
HUI
1 - 1
MIL
39%
27%
33%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Nov. 2007 |
MIL
2 - 2
SFE
56%
25%
19%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2007 |
MIL
2 - 3
AME
33%
26%
41%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2007 |
EQU
1 - 1
MIL
41%
26%
32%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2007 |
MIL
2 - 1
CHI
48%
26%
26%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | +1 |