Conmebol Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 0-4
América vs Vélez Sarsfield analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54.2%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.7%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
21.4%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
América
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 2005 |
AME
1 - 2
VER
75%
16%
9%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2005 |
JAG
4 - 3
AME
34%
26%
41%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2005 |
NAC
1 - 4
AME
41%
27%
33%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | -1 |
| 02 Oct. 2005 |
AME
3 - 1
SNL
74%
17%
9%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | +1 |
| 28 Sep. 2005 |
TOL
0 - 1
AME
48%
25%
27%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Vélez Sarsfield
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 2005 |
ARS
0 - 1
VEL
35%
28%
37%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2005 |
VEL
2 - 1
COL
55%
24%
21%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2005 |
BAN
0 - 0
VEL
41%
27%
32%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 2005 |
CRZ
2 - 1
VEL
53%
24%
23%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2005 |
VEL
1 - 0
NOB
56%
24%
20%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |