Alpendorada vs Machico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.7%
Win probability
2.59
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4%
4-0
5%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.3%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.5%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
16.3%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.3%
13%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
2.8%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+28%
+13%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
29
7º
13º
11º
25
8º
13º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
49 | 52 |
1º
|
35% | |
|
2º
|
49 | 52 |
2º
|
16.5% | |
|
3º
|
48 | 51 |
3º
|
59% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 48 |
4º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
43 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
39 | 42 |
6º
|
93% | |
|
7º
|
38 | 38 |
7º
|
93% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 33 |
8º
|
71.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 32 |
9º
|
71.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
25 | 29 |
10º
|
67% | |
|
|
10º
|
29 | 29 |
11º
|
67% | |
|
12º
|
20 | 20 |
12º
|
84% | |
|
13º
|
17 | 17 |
13º
|
84% | |
|
14º
|
10 | 11 |
14º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
33% | 67% |
|
Mid-table
|
67% | 33% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alpendorada
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
LEC
0 - 1
ALP
65%
21%
14%
|
32 | 45 | 13 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
ALP
1 - 0
CAS
38%
24%
39%
|
30 | 36 | 6 | +2 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
BMA
2 - 1
ALP
75%
16%
9%
|
30 | 44 | 14 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
ALP
2 - 0
MAR
11%
16%
73%
|
25 | 45 | 20 | +5 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
GUA
2 - 2
ALP
61%
19%
20%
|
24 | 28 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Machico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2023 |
MAC
0 - 2
VAL
11%
17%
72%
|
25 | 45 | 20 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2023 |
CAM
1 - 1
MAC
73%
16%
11%
|
24 | 38 | 14 | +1 |
| 29 Jan. 2023 |
MAC
3 - 2
RES
23%
21%
56%
|
22 | 32 | 10 | +2 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
MAC
0 - 1
LEC
11%
17%
73%
|
23 | 44 | 21 | -1 |
| 15 Jan. 2023 |
CAS
0 - 1
MAC
72%
17%
11%
|
22 | 37 | 15 | +1 |