Qualifying stages Copa Libertadores Primera Fase Final
First-leg 1-1
Alianza Lima vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.6%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.2%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.4%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.4%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
26%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26%
26.4%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2025 |
NAC
1 - 1
ALI
40%
27%
33%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2025 |
ALI
2 - 0
AUC
38%
26%
36%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
LIG
1 - 1
ALI
53%
24%
23%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2025 |
MOR
2 - 1
ALI
37%
28%
36%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
ALI
2 - 0
EME
44%
26%
30%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 2025 |
NAC
1 - 1
ALI
40%
27%
33%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
CCP
3 - 1
NAC
42%
27%
31%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | -1 |
| 30 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
0 - 3
LIB
44%
28%
28%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
2DE
0 - 0
NAC
41%
28%
31%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | -1 |
| 06 Dec. 2024 |
LIB
1 - 0
NAC
40%
25%
35%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |