Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 1-3
Alianza Lima vs Millonarios analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.1%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.7%
2-0
6%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
7.9%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.6%
38.3%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.1%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alianza Lima
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 1995 |
ALI
1 - 1
BOL
45%
27%
29%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1995 |
ALI
6 - 1
JWI
49%
25%
26%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 1995 |
ALI
1 - 1
SPC
46%
26%
28%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1995 |
BOL
3 - 1
ALI
72%
18%
10%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | -1 |
| 14 Feb. 1995 |
JWI
2 - 1
ALI
50%
26%
24%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Millonarios
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 1995 |
UCH
3 - 2
MIL
45%
24%
30%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 1995 |
UCO
4 - 1
MIL
55%
23%
22%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1995 |
MIL
2 - 0
NAC
59%
21%
20%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 07 Mar. 1995 |
MIL
1 - 0
UCH
69%
17%
14%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Feb. 1995 |
MIL
5 - 1
UCO
56%
22%
22%
|
76 | 78 | 2 | +1 |