Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 2-5
Alianza Atl. Sullana vs U. Católica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.9%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.6%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.8%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.5%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.5%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25.1%
35.9%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
19.5%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
3.8%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
10.5%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4.2%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alianza Atl. Sullana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2005 |
ALI
1 - 1
UNI
46%
25%
29%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2005 |
ALI
3 - 1
AGU
45%
26%
29%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2005 |
UNI
1 - 0
ALI
59%
23%
19%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2005 |
UCO
5 - 0
ALI
69%
18%
13%
|
67 | 77 | 10 | -2 |
| 10 Aug. 2005 |
UNI
1 - 1
ALI
59%
22%
19%
|
66 | 74 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2005 |
UCO
0 - 1
UCH
58%
21%
21%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2005 |
COB
0 - 2
UCO
54%
24%
23%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 2005 |
UCO
1 - 0
PUE
73%
16%
11%
|
76 | 61 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2005 |
UCH
1 - 2
UCO
51%
24%
25%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2005 |
UCO
5 - 0
ALI
69%
18%
13%
|
77 | 67 | 10 | -1 |