Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 4-2
Alianza Atl. Sullana vs Bolognesi Tacna analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.4%
Win probability
2.47
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.6%
4-0
5%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.9%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
16.9%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.9%
12.7%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alianza Atl. Sullana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 2004 |
BOL
0 - 1
ALI
36%
26%
39%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2004 |
CAU
1 - 2
ALI
22%
26%
52%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2004 |
BOL
1 - 0
ALI
38%
24%
38%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2004 |
ALI
3 - 1
CIE
48%
25%
28%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 08 Aug. 2004 |
ALI
1 - 0
VAL
58%
23%
19%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Bolognesi Tacna
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2004 |
BOL
1 - 0
ALI
38%
24%
38%
|
71 | 79 | 8 | 0 |