Alfonso Ugarte Chiclín vs Defensor Porvenir analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
26.9%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.6%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.5%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.3%
1-0
7%
2-1
6.7%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
16.2%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
48.8%
Win probability
1.65
Expected goals
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
5.2%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
14.8%
0-3
4.5%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.1%
0-4
1.9%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.7%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alfonso Ugarte Chiclín
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
CDP
4 - 2
AUC
46%
22%
33%
|
5 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
AUC
0 - 1
FSM
28%
21%
51%
|
5 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
DTA
5 - 1
AUC
39%
22%
40%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | -2 |
Matches
Defensor Porvenir
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 2023 |
CDP
4 - 2
AUC
46%
22%
33%
|
7 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 2023 |
FCC
0 - 0
CDP
34%
21%
45%
|
7 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2023 |
CDP
1 - 0
SAF
39%
22%
40%
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |