Alcione vs Desenzano Calvina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.6%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.3%
20.9%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.9%
22.5%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.4%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alcione
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 2023 |
VIL
3 - 2
ALC
21%
25%
55%
|
48 | 34 | 14 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
ALC
3 - 1
ARC
62%
21%
17%
|
48 | 42 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
USB
1 - 4
ALC
19%
25%
56%
|
47 | 33 | 14 | +1 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
ALC
3 - 2
CAL
74%
17%
9%
|
46 | 35 | 11 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 2023 |
DES
1 - 1
ALC
30%
27%
43%
|
46 | 39 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Desenzano Calvina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 2023 |
DES
5 - 2
SER
60%
23%
17%
|
41 | 35 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
VAR
1 - 2
DES
35%
26%
39%
|
39 | 36 | 3 | +2 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
DES
1 - 3
CAS
39%
28%
33%
|
41 | 44 | 3 | -2 |
| 16 Apr. 2023 |
VCB
0 - 1
DES
38%
26%
37%
|
39 | 36 | 3 | +2 |
| 06 Apr. 2023 |
DES
1 - 1
ALC
30%
27%
43%
|
39 | 46 | 7 | 0 |