Alcains vs Arronches e Benfica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
16.5%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.7%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.2%
1-0
4%
2-1
4.6%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
10.7%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.4%
64.1%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
7.3%
2-4
2.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
19.2%
0-3
7%
1-4
4%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
12.1%
0-4
3.9%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6%
0-5
1.7%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.5%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+78%
+75%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
11
9º
14º
14º
16
11º
14º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
48 | 52 |
1º
|
53% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 51 |
2º
|
33% | |
|
3º
|
47 | 51 |
3º
|
22.5% | |
|
4º
|
41 | 44 |
4º
|
75.5% | |
|
5º
|
40 | 43 |
5º
|
60.5% | |
|
7º
|
36 | 40 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
6º
|
38 | 39 |
7º
|
36.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 39 |
8º
|
57% | |
|
9º
|
33 | 34 |
9º
|
80.5% | |
|
10º
|
27 | 31 |
10º
|
60.5% | |
|
11º
|
25 | 28 |
11º
|
78% | |
|
|
12º
|
16 | 19 |
12º
|
65.5% | |
|
14º
|
6 | 17 |
13º
|
50% | |
|
|
13º
|
11 | 12 |
14º
|
84.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Alcains
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
ALC
2 - 5
LOU
15%
23%
63%
|
20 | 36 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2023 |
PER
1 - 0
ALC
82%
13%
5%
|
20 | 43 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2023 |
ALC
0 - 3
COR
14%
21%
66%
|
21 | 37 | 16 | -1 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
SIN
4 - 1
ALC
83%
12%
5%
|
21 | 43 | 22 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
ALC
1 - 2
USA
11%
20%
69%
|
21 | 42 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Arronches e Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Mar. 2023 |
SAB
1 - 2
LOU
34%
24%
42%
|
28 | 35 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2023 |
MAR
3 - 1
SAB
69%
18%
13%
|
28 | 42 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2023 |
SAB
0 - 1
PER
24%
23%
54%
|
29 | 42 | 13 | -1 |
| 26 Feb. 2023 |
1DE
3 - 1
SAB
61%
21%
18%
|
30 | 41 | 11 | -1 |
| 19 Feb. 2023 |
SAB
0 - 0
COR
30%
23%
47%
|
30 | 38 | 8 | 0 |