Copa del Rey Quarter-finals
Global 5-2
Deportivo Alavés vs Real Murcia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.2%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.4%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.7%
3-0
6%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
8%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
19.3%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.2%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Deportivo Alavés
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 1928 |
MUR
1 - 2
ALA
53%
22%
25%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 1928 |
ALA
0 - 1
RMA
37%
23%
40%
|
68 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 1928 |
RSG
0 - 0
ALA
25%
24%
51%
|
68 | 44 | 24 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1928 |
ATH
0 - 0
ALA
78%
13%
9%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1928 |
ALA
2 - 1
ATM
36%
23%
41%
|
67 | 79 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Real Murcia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Apr. 1928 |
MUR
1 - 2
ALA
53%
22%
25%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 1928 |
MUR
3 - 2
BET
38%
24%
39%
|
64 | 75 | 11 | +1 |
| 01 Apr. 1928 |
LEV
1 - 3
MUR
30%
24%
47%
|
64 | 48 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 1928 |
MUR
2 - 1
CAR
76%
14%
10%
|
63 | 50 | 13 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 1928 |
VCF
3 - 1
MUR
74%
15%
11%
|
64 | 78 | 14 | -1 |