CAF Champions Final
Global 1-3
Al-Ahly vs Etoile Sahel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.8%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.1%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.2%
1-0
15.3%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.5%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
23.3%
14.9%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Al-Ahly
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov. 2007 |
ISM
1 - 1
ALA
51%
26%
24%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2007 |
ETO
0 - 0
ALA
44%
26%
30%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Oct. 2007 |
ALA
1 - 0
AIT
61%
22%
17%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2007 |
ETI
1 - 2
ALA
40%
28%
32%
|
76 | 69 | 7 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2007 |
ALA
1 - 0
ALT
52%
26%
22%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Etoile Sahel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 2007 |
ETO
0 - 1
STA
53%
26%
22%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2007 |
ETO
0 - 0
ALA
44%
26%
30%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | -1 |
| 20 Oct. 2007 |
ETO
2 - 0
OLY
51%
26%
23%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 2007 |
CSS
0 - 2
ETO
56%
26%
18%
|
72 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2007 |
ETO
3 - 1
ALH
78%
14%
7%
|
72 | 44 | 28 | 0 |