CAF Champions Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Al Ahly SC vs Al Ittihad Tripoli analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.1%
Win probability
1.7
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.9%
19%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Al Ahly SC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2010 |
ALA
1 - 1
ISM
46%
27%
27%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2010 |
ALA
3 - 0
ELM
69%
21%
10%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 2010 |
AIT
2 - 0
ALA
38%
25%
36%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | -3 |
| 16 Apr. 2010 |
ZAM
3 - 3
ALA
43%
28%
29%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2010 |
ALA
1 - 0
ITT
55%
25%
20%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Al Ittihad Tripoli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2010 |
AIT
3 - 3
AMT
62%
23%
15%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 2010 |
ANB
3 - 1
AIT
43%
28%
29%
|
69 | 64 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2010 |
AIT
2 - 0
ALA
38%
25%
36%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | +1 |
| 07 Apr. 2010 |
AIT
1 - 1
ALH
71%
19%
10%
|
69 | 57 | 12 | -1 |
| 02 Apr. 2010 |
DIF
1 - 1
AIT
48%
27%
25%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | 0 |