Al-Ahly Merowe vs Umm Mughad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.4%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.6%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.1%
5-0
3.7%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
7.1%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.1%
3-0
10.9%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.8%
2-0
12.5%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.3%
14%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
6.6%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
14%
7.6%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
2.5%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
5.7%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-15%
+412%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Al-Ahly Merowe
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2023 |
AAS
1 - 1
AFA
36%
24%
40%
|
35 | 40 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2023 |
AAS
3 - 1
ALA
33%
26%
40%
|
33 | 39 | 6 | +2 |
| 02 Apr. 2023 |
KHA
2 - 0
AAS
48%
24%
28%
|
34 | 34 | 0 | -1 |
| 22 Mar. 2023 |
ALM
2 - 0
AAS
68%
19%
13%
|
35 | 41 | 6 | -1 |
| 17 Mar. 2023 |
AAS
2 - 2
KSC
40%
24%
36%
|
35 | 37 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Umm Mughad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
KSC
0 - 0
UMS
81%
13%
7%
|
8 | 40 | 32 | 0 |