Europa League 1/16
Global 4-5
Akademik Sofia vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
37.5%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.8%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
35.6%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Akademik Sofia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 1976 |
CSK
1 - 0
AKA
67%
20%
14%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1976 |
AKA
3 - 0
SLP
48%
23%
29%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 25 Sep. 1976 |
ASV
0 - 0
AKA
32%
30%
38%
|
76 | 54 | 22 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1976 |
SLP
2 - 0
AKA
70%
17%
13%
|
77 | 79 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Sep. 1976 |
AKA
0 - 0
DUN
61%
22%
17%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct. 1976 |
SAM
0 - 0
ACM
20%
27%
54%
|
86 | 68 | 18 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1976 |
ACM
2 - 1
PRG
73%
18%
9%
|
86 | 72 | 14 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 1976 |
ACM
2 - 1
DBU
69%
20%
11%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | +1 |
| 19 Sep. 1976 |
NOV
0 - 3
ACM
14%
21%
65%
|
85 | 58 | 27 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1976 |
DBU
0 - 0
ACM
53%
23%
25%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |