AP Brera vs Pelister analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.9%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
23.8%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
6
2º
12º
8º
5
6º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
11 | 42 |
1º
|
50.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 38 |
2º
|
25.5% | |
|
7º
|
5 | 36 |
3º
|
14.5% | |
|
4º
|
9 | 34 |
4º
|
15% | |
|
2º
|
11 | 34 |
5º
|
11% | |
|
5º
|
9 | 31 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 29 |
7º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
6 | 28 |
8º
|
13% | |
|
11º
|
4 | 26 |
9º
|
15.5% | |
|
|
8º
|
5 | 22 |
10º
|
18.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 21 |
11º
|
21.5% | |
|
12º
|
4 | 20 |
12º
|
36% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
1% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
6.5% | 1% |
|
Mid-table
|
47% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
26% | 32.5% |
|
Relegation
|
19.5% | 35% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
AP Brera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2024 |
VAN
0 - 4
AKP
13%
20%
67%
|
54 | 36 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
AKP
3 - 2
BES
50%
25%
25%
|
53 | 52 | 1 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
FCS
2 - 0
AKP
62%
23%
16%
|
54 | 62 | 8 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
AKP
0 - 2
SHK
29%
26%
44%
|
54 | 63 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
SIL
4 - 0
AKP
44%
27%
29%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Pelister
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 2024 |
FKS
0 - 1
PEL
17%
22%
61%
|
52 | 40 | 12 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 2024 |
PEL
1 - 1
FCS
25%
27%
48%
|
52 | 63 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
SHK
2 - 0
PEL
68%
20%
12%
|
53 | 64 | 11 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
PEL
1 - 0
SIL
35%
27%
38%
|
51 | 56 | 5 | +2 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
VAR
1 - 0
PEL
42%
27%
32%
|
52 | 51 | 1 | -1 |