Europa League Quarter-finals
Global 2-3
Ajax vs Roma analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.2%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.4%
2-0
7%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.5%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.1%
26.8%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr. 2021 |
SCH
1 - 2
AJA
10%
17%
73%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2021 |
AJA
5 - 0
ADO
90%
8%
2%
|
88 | 59 | 29 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2021 |
YOB
0 - 2
AJA
26%
22%
52%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2021 |
ZWO
0 - 2
AJA
9%
15%
76%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2021 |
AJA
3 - 0
YOB
65%
19%
16%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 2021 |
SAS
2 - 2
ROM
28%
23%
49%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Mar. 2021 |
ROM
0 - 2
NAP
53%
22%
25%
|
87 | 87 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2021 |
SHA
1 - 2
ROM
31%
24%
45%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2021 |
PAR
2 - 0
ROM
11%
19%
70%
|
87 | 72 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2021 |
ROM
3 - 0
SHA
65%
19%
17%
|
87 | 84 | 3 | 0 |