Europa League Fase Final 1/16
Global 2-1
Ajax vs Fiorentina analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.3%
Win probability
1.81
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.2%
3-0
7%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
12.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
17%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.5%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb. 2009 |
AJA
2 - 1
VOL
74%
16%
10%
|
88 | 68 | 20 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
FIO
0 - 1
AJA
36%
25%
40%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
AJA
2 - 0
FEY
68%
19%
14%
|
88 | 78 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2009 |
VIT
4 - 1
AJA
14%
20%
66%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2009 |
AJA
2 - 2
HER
77%
15%
8%
|
88 | 63 | 25 | 0 |
Matches
Fiorentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb. 2009 |
FIO
2 - 1
CHI
64%
22%
14%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2009 |
FIO
0 - 1
AJA
36%
25%
40%
|
86 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
GEN
3 - 3
FIO
38%
28%
34%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2009 |
FIO
1 - 0
LAZ
48%
25%
27%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2009 |
BOL
1 - 3
FIO
35%
29%
36%
|
86 | 77 | 9 | 0 |