Champions League Quarter-finals
Global 7-4
Ajax vs Benfica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.4%
Win probability
2.6
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.3%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.4%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.3%
16.3%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.3%
13.3%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.7%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 1969 |
AJA
2 - 2
SHS
90%
7%
4%
|
88 | 66 | 22 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1969 |
SLB
1 - 3
AJA
69%
16%
15%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 1969 |
AJA
1 - 3
SLB
74%
15%
11%
|
88 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1969 |
AJA
7 - 0
VVD
82%
12%
7%
|
88 | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1969 |
NEC
1 - 2
AJA
20%
21%
59%
|
88 | 71 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Benfica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1969 |
SLB
0 - 0
SCP
84%
11%
5%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1969 |
ATL
0 - 2
SLB
24%
25%
51%
|
88 | 53 | 35 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1969 |
SLB
1 - 3
AJA
69%
16%
15%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1969 |
SLB
3 - 1
VAR
85%
10%
5%
|
88 | 59 | 29 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 1969 |
AJA
1 - 3
SLB
74%
15%
11%
|
87 | 88 | 1 | +1 |