Águia Negra vs Aparecidense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.9%
Win probability
1.61
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.3%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.5%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.9%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
30.7%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
17.5%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.2%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Águia Negra
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 2020 |
AGU
2 - 1
VIT
54%
23%
23%
|
46 | 45 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2020 |
LTD
0 - 0
AGU
31%
25%
44%
|
47 | 42 | 5 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2020 |
AGU
3 - 1
LTD
60%
21%
19%
|
46 | 43 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2020 |
VIT
3 - 1
AGU
37%
26%
37%
|
47 | 45 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2020 |
APA
4 - 0
AGU
28%
26%
47%
|
49 | 43 | 6 | -2 |
Matches
Aparecidense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct. 2020 |
REA
0 - 0
APA
48%
24%
28%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2020 |
APA
4 - 0
URO
60%
23%
17%
|
47 | 41 | 6 | +1 |
| 17 Oct. 2020 |
URO
2 - 4
APA
34%
26%
40%
|
46 | 42 | 4 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2020 |
APA
2 - 1
REA
34%
25%
41%
|
45 | 48 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Oct. 2020 |
APA
4 - 0
AGU
28%
26%
47%
|
43 | 49 | 6 | +2 |