Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.7%
2-0
6.4%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.5%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.8%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
12.1%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.6%
35.4%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
19.6%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.2%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+4%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
1º
8º
6º
24
1º
6º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
3.5% | 31% |
|
Next round
|
58.5% | 63.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
38% | 5.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Adelaide United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
WPH
3 - 2
ADE
49%
24%
28%
|
66 | 69 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
ADE
1 - 2
WES
41%
25%
34%
|
66 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
SYD
2 - 1
ADE
48%
24%
27%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2024 |
ADE
3 - 3
PER
57%
22%
21%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2024 |
ADE
0 - 4
CCM
32%
25%
43%
|
68 | 74 | 6 | -2 |
Matches
Melbourne Victory
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
BRI
3 - 2
MEL
32%
27%
42%
|
70 | 64 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 2024 |
MEL
0 - 1
CCM
35%
25%
40%
|
70 | 74 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2024 |
MEL
2 - 1
WUF
63%
21%
16%
|
70 | 61 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
50%
24%
26%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
MEL
0 - 1
MFC
54%
23%
23%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |