Académica vs Benfica Castelo Branco analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.2%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.5%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.9%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
16.9%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.1%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Académica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
SCP
2 - 1
ACA
34%
26%
41%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
ACA
1 - 0
USA
39%
27%
34%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
OLI
1 - 1
ACA
20%
23%
57%
|
51 | 41 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
ACA
1 - 1
SPC
54%
25%
21%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Aug. 2024 |
LUS
3 - 3
ACA
38%
27%
35%
|
50 | 49 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Benfica Castelo Branco
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
BEN
0 - 0
FAT
57%
24%
19%
|
42 | 36 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
PER
0 - 1
BEN
32%
26%
42%
|
41 | 35 | 6 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
BEN
1 - 2
FCA
52%
24%
24%
|
41 | 36 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
PEN
2 - 0
BEN
24%
27%
49%
|
43 | 34 | 9 | -2 |
| 24 Mar. 2024 |
BEN
1 - 1
SER
44%
27%
29%
|
43 | 43 | 0 | 0 |