Académica vs Penalva Castelo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.5%
Win probability
2.4
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.9%
5-0
4.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
<0%
+5
4.8%
4-0
8.6%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
10.3%
3-0
14.4%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.9%
2-0
17.9%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
<0%
+2
24%
1-0
14.9%
2-1
6.7%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
22.8%
13.2%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
5.6%
2-2
1.3%
3-3
0.1%
0
13.2%
4.2%
Win probability
0.38
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
1.1%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
3.6%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.6%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Académica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
FCP
2 - 1
ACA
76%
16%
9%
|
76 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 Nov. 2012 |
ACA
2 - 0
ATM
12%
21%
67%
|
75 | 91 | 16 | +1 |
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
ACA
0 - 2
EST
51%
27%
22%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | -1 |
| 29 Oct. 2012 |
SCP
0 - 0
ACA
65%
21%
14%
|
76 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Oct. 2012 |
ATM
2 - 1
ACA
82%
13%
6%
|
76 | 91 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Penalva Castelo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2012 |
SAM
1 - 0
PEN
37%
25%
39%
|
29 | 24 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2012 |
PEN
1 - 0
AVA
47%
23%
30%
|
28 | 27 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Oct. 2012 |
OLI
2 - 2
PEN
36%
25%
39%
|
28 | 23 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2012 |
FAT
0 - 0
PEN
77%
15%
8%
|
27 | 54 | 27 | +1 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
PEN
0 - 0
EST
26%
24%
51%
|
27 | 39 | 12 | 0 |