Academia vs Fortaleza analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.9%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.6%
2-0
10.8%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.3%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
19.8%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.9%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Academia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2011 |
ACA
2 - 1
BOG
40%
26%
33%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2011 |
ACA
1 - 0
PAS
25%
27%
48%
|
57 | 71 | 14 | +1 |
| 14 Apr. 2011 |
BUC
1 - 0
ACA
47%
25%
28%
|
58 | 56 | 2 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 2011 |
ACA
0 - 1
PAT
39%
27%
34%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2011 |
RIO
1 - 1
ACA
56%
24%
20%
|
58 | 65 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Fortaleza
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr. 2011 |
TOL
1 - 0
FOR
76%
16%
8%
|
54 | 80 | 26 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2011 |
FOR
0 - 0
COR
43%
26%
31%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2011 |
FOR
2 - 1
BAR
56%
24%
21%
|
54 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2011 |
UNI
2 - 0
FOR
54%
24%
22%
|
54 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2011 |
FOR
2 - 4
PAS
27%
27%
47%
|
55 | 70 | 15 | -1 |