Pavia vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.9%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.3%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.5%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.9%
27.3%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.3%
38.8%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
11%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.6%
0-2
7%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.3%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct. 2004 |
ACP
0 - 3
PAV
45%
26%
29%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2004 |
PAV
1 - 0
NOV
37%
26%
37%
|
49 | 57 | 8 | +1 |
| 26 Sep. 2004 |
FRO
1 - 0
PAV
74%
17%
9%
|
50 | 62 | 12 | -1 |
| 19 Sep. 2004 |
PAV
1 - 0
FIA
38%
27%
35%
|
49 | 56 | 7 | +1 |
| 12 Sep. 2004 |
ACI
1 - 2
PAV
54%
26%
21%
|
47 | 57 | 10 | +2 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct. 2004 |
USC
1 - 3
ASL
46%
27%
27%
|
58 | 56 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2004 |
ASL
4 - 3
ACP
54%
25%
21%
|
58 | 49 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Sep. 2004 |
FIA
2 - 1
ASL
41%
28%
30%
|
59 | 56 | 3 | -1 |
| 19 Sep. 2004 |
ASL
1 - 1
ACI
46%
28%
27%
|
59 | 56 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2004 |
FRO
1 - 2
ASL
62%
22%
16%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | +1 |