Pavia vs Spezia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
32%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.1%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
2.9%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.8%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
41.6%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
10.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
4%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.3%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.6%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 2004 |
SAS
0 - 1
PAV
44%
27%
29%
|
53 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2004 |
USC
2 - 1
PAV
57%
23%
20%
|
53 | 57 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2004 |
PAV
3 - 0
ASL
34%
27%
39%
|
51 | 60 | 9 | +2 |
| 10 Oct. 2004 |
ACP
0 - 3
PAV
45%
26%
29%
|
50 | 48 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 Oct. 2004 |
PAV
1 - 0
NOV
37%
26%
37%
|
49 | 57 | 8 | +1 |
Matches
Spezia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 2004 |
SPE
3 - 0
ACL
50%
27%
23%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 2004 |
GRO
2 - 1
SPE
36%
27%
38%
|
61 | 55 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 2004 |
SPE
1 - 0
PIS
51%
27%
23%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2004 |
PIS
2 - 3
SPE
46%
27%
27%
|
60 | 60 | 0 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 2004 |
SPE
3 - 0
FRO
36%
27%
36%
|
59 | 62 | 3 | +1 |