Pavia vs Spezia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.9%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.4%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9.5%
1-0
10%
2-1
7.6%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.8%
27.1%
Draw
0-0
8.4%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.1%
39%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
10.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.1%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
21.6%
0-2
7%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.3%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.4%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pavia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 2004 |
SAS
3 - 0
PAV
46%
26%
28%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2004 |
PAV
1 - 0
ACP
51%
24%
26%
|
48 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2004 |
ARZ
2 - 0
PAV
65%
21%
15%
|
48 | 58 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2004 |
PAV
0 - 1
VAR
53%
25%
23%
|
49 | 49 | 0 | -1 |
| 11 Jan. 2004 |
ASL
1 - 0
PAV
51%
26%
22%
|
50 | 57 | 7 | -1 |
Matches
Spezia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 2004 |
SPE
1 - 0
CTT
46%
27%
27%
|
58 | 56 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2004 |
SPE
2 - 1
ARZ
40%
28%
32%
|
57 | 58 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Feb. 2004 |
ASL
0 - 0
SPE
41%
29%
30%
|
57 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2004 |
SPE
1 - 1
CES
40%
29%
31%
|
57 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2004 |
ACL
1 - 2
SPE
52%
25%
23%
|
56 | 58 | 2 | +1 |